Idea: housing versus carry
The core question is simple: is housing appreciation strong enough to compensate for the cost of money? The model compares housing total return with the key rate. When housing beats carry, the market moves into a higher-risk regime.
The historical layer is intentionally delayed. It is used to explain the method and test the regime logic on older data. Current readings, the latest three-year window, and fresh regime signals are part of the paid Pro layer.
Composite apogee score: housing beats carry + secondary beats primary + Moscow beats regions. A score of 3/3 marks the strongest late-cycle growth regime, not a guaranteed price top.
1. Historical housing vs carry
RUB total return spread: secondary housing YoY + rent yield minus key rate.
Z-score: housing vs carry
Rolling 12-quarter Z-score. Values are based only on visible historical data.
2. Secondary vs primary
Secondary / Primary price ratio. Rising ratio means secondary catches up or outperforms.
Z-score: secondary vs primary
Rolling 12-quarter Z-score.
3. Moscow vs regions
Moscow secondary / Russia secondary. Rising ratio means Moscow outperforms regions.
Z-score: Moscow vs regions
Rolling 12-quarter Z-score.
4. Apogee growth score
0–3 composite historical regime score.